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Regulatory Radar
Regulatory Radar covers the macro shifts, rule changes, and AI moves that reshape compliance at financial institutions of every size. Every story runs in full, cites the primary record, and goes up the day our newsletter ships.
The Fed hikes unanimously for the first time since 2023
The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75–4% on a 12–0 vote, and the median projection pencils in one more increase. The summer’s cut-or-hold debate ended in the other direction.
The FOMC raised the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75–4% on September 16. It was the first increase since July 2023, and the vote was 12–0. The statement said the move “will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” The median projection puts the funds rate at 4.1% at year-end, which means one more quarter point, and holds it there through 2027. For deposit pricing and ALCO, the easing scenario is off the table for 2026.
The 2023 third-party guidance is headed for replacement
The Fed, FDIC, OCC, and NCUA proposed risk-tailored guidance to replace it. They also issued a joint statement that puts core providers’ practices on the supervisory scale.
“Unsafe or unsound” gets a definition, and MRAs get a materiality bar
The final rule, effective November 2, ties enforcement and MRAs to likely material financial harm. The FDIC retires MRBAs and supervisory recommendations.
The 18-month exam cycle now reaches banks under $6 billion
An interim final rule, effective September 14, doubles the asset ceiling from $3 billion. About 188 more banks become eligible.
Headline CPI holds at 3.4% while the core falls to 2.4%
Gasoline drove over a third of August’s 0.4% monthly rise. The core’s annual rate is the lowest since March 2021.
Payrolls rebound to 162K, and July is no longer negative
Revisions added 55,000 to June and July, unemployment held at 4.1%, and wage growth of 3.1% still trails prices.
Frontier AI crosses the “Critical” cyber line
OpenAI rated GPT-6 Astra Critical for cyber capability and shipped it broadly. Anthropic’s Opus 5.5 reroutes most cybersecurity tasks to an older model.
August 2026
Vol. 1, No. 08- Labor · MacroPayrolls turn negative, and the months behind them shrink
- FDIC · SupervisionThe FDIC’s appeals office opens with wider grounds
- CFPB · Open Banking · §1033Open banking heads back to the drawing board
- Interagency · Model RiskThe model-risk rewrite left GenAI ungoverned, and the RFI hasn’t come
- Markets · GrowthGDP slows to 1.5%, but private demand accelerated
- Federal Reserve · SLOOSLoan officers ease CRE standards for the first time this cycle
- AnthropicTwo frontier releases in 24 days, and no rulebook yet
July 2026
Vol. 1, No. 07- Markets · MacroInflation snaps back to 3.5% as the energy shock unwinds
- Federal Reserve · BSA/AMLThe Fed joins the AML/CFT program rewrite
- Interagency · ExamsExams go need-to-know on highly sensitive information
- OCC · FDIC · CRAA narrower CRA with new tiers, a lending-test focus and no Fed
- LaborPayrolls cool to 57K as the labor force shrinks
- Federal Reserve · FOMCA 9–3 hold, with all three dissents for a hike
- AI · RegTechCompliance AI mints a unicorn
June 2026
Vol. 1, No. 06- Federal Reserve · FOMCThe Warsh Fed opens with a hold and five words on inflation
- FFIEC · RatingsCAMELS gets its first rewrite since 1996
- CFPB · §1071The 1071 rule lands at 1,000 loans, and the clock is already counting
- OCC · BSA/AMLAn OCC consent order maps the BaaS failure pattern
- Markets · InflationCore PCE runs 3.4% as the saving rate touches 3.0%
- Markets · EnergyHormuz reopens and Brent sheds $22 in a month
- AnthropicSonnet 5 ships near-frontier agents at commodity prices
May 2026
Vol. 1, No. 05- Markets · MacroInflation crosses 4% on an energy shock, but the core stays quiet
- CFPB · Open Banking · §1033Personal Financial Data Rights enters its first compliance tier
- FinCEN · BSA / AMLBeneficial ownership stays narrowed to foreign entities
- FFIEC · Third-Party RiskAI vendors land inside third-party risk scope
- Federal Reserve · FOMCFed holds at 3.50–3.75% amid a four-way dissent
- LaborPayrolls add 172K, beating expectations
- AnthropicCloses financing above OpenAI and files to go public