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Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 29,000 in September, according to the October 2 Employment Situation release. Economists surveyed by LSEG had expected about 90,000. Private employers added 46,000 jobs and government shed 17,000. The figure is preliminary and will be revised twice more.
The revisions undid most of last month’s good news. August, first reported at 162,000, is now 133,000. July has now been revised three times. It was first reported as a 23,000 decline, then revised to a 21,000 gain, and it now stands at a 10,000 loss. Together the two months are 60,000 lower than previously reported.
How the record changed
| Month | First reported | Now |
|---|---|---|
| July | −23K | −10K |
| August | +162K | +133K |
| September | +29K | Preliminary |
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, while labor-force participation rose to 61.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents to $37.81. They are up 3.0% over the year, against September’s 3.7% CPI. That gap is more than double August’s.
A labor market adding 29,000 jobs a month is still adding jobs. It is not adding enough to carry borrowers through a fuel shock.
- Revisit the recession overlay you unwound last month. The three-month average is now about 51,000, and the trend points down.
- Segment consumer credit by income band. Lower-income borrowers carry both the real-wage squeeze and the fuel costs.
- Expect deposit outflows from households drawing on savings. The Beige Book reported deposits declining in the New York District.
Zovos re-runs your credit and deposit baselines when a revision moves the macro record in either direction.
This is for information only and is not legal or investment advice. Verify all figures against the linked primary sources before acting.